Posts tagged ‘weekly’

February 19, 2012

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY jumped to as high as 126.06 last week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 124.33. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen towards 127.30 resistance, which is close to 161.8% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 127.26. At noted before, we’re treating rebound from 117.29 as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 116.83. Hence, we’d expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42 to finish the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. Below 124.49 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 122.04 should then bring retest of 116.83 low next.

In the bigger picture, the choppy decline from 163.05 is viewed as part of the down trend from 251.09 and there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Such down trend is expected to continue after consolidation pattern from 116.83 finishes and target 110 psychological next. However, sustained break of above mentioned 128.42 will raise the odds that GBP/JPY has bottomed in medium term and will turn focus back to 140.20 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Fall from 163.05 could be a wave five based on it’s choppy structure and lack of decisive momentum. After all, there is no sign of bottoming yet and GBP/JPY is still in favor to target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level, before the cross bottoms.

February 19, 2012

Euro/US dollar Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to as long 1.2974, EUR/USD rebounded strongly and the breach of 1.3190 minor resistance dampened the immediate bearish view. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading first. On the upside, above 1.3321 will resume the rebound from 1.2625 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627. On the downside, below 1.2974 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It’s hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. Though, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3588) will pave the way for a test on 1.4939 resistance level.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we’d expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

February 12, 2012

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to 1.3321 last week, EUR/USD lost momentum from there and retreated sharply. A short term top is likely in place with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 1.3028 support. Break there will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.2625 and bring retest of this support. Also, in that case, whole decline from 1.4939 is likely resuming for another low below 1.2625. On the upside, above 1.3321 will extend the rebound from 1.2625 towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627.