Posts tagged ‘Usdcad’

February 19, 2012

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD continued to engage in choppy sideway trading above 0.9926 last week. The development suggests that price actions from 0.9926 are merely consolidations. And with 1.0070 minor resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidation could be seen. But downside breakout is in favor and below 0.9926 should target 0.9891. Break there will also resume fall from 1.0656 towards 100% projection of 1.0656 to 0.9891 from 1.0522 at 0.9757. In any case, we’ll stay bearish as long as 1.0070 minor resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9406 and price actions from there could either be consolidation to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. We’re favoring neither case for the moment. Firstly, we’d expect 0.9406 to hold for a while at least. Secondly, the eventual pattern of the price actions from 1.0656 would decide whether rebound from 0.9406 is going to extend higher, or USD/CAD is just gyrating in range. We’ll stay neutral first until the pattern from 1.0656 finishes.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.

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February 15, 2012

USD/CAD: Risk of a drop towards the Oct low at 0.9892 remains

By commerzbank

USD/CAD continues to oscillate around the 200 day moving average at 0.9985 and has done so for over one week, comments Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank. “Scope remains for a slide back to the October low at 0.9892 which is expected to hold the downside”.

According to the analyst, the market will find initial resistance at the December low and the 3rd January low at 1.0049/73, but key short term resistance is the 55 day ma and the 3 month downtrend at 1.0149/46. “This will need to be overcome for immediate downside pressure to diminish, something which is not likely to be seen this week, however”, said Jones.

“Only an unexpected drop and two daily closes below the October low at 0.9892 would point towards further range trading with a bearish bias, something we do not envisage happening at present”, Commerzbank analyst concluded.

February 7, 2012

USD/CAD

Source: Dow Jones

USD/CAD is lifted by weak equities, says RBC Capital Markets, with some fund buying noted that took the spot up from 0.9953 to an overnight high of 0.9981. USD/CAD just touched a fresh high for the day at 0.9996 amid a small generalised USD selloff. RBC pegs next resistance at 1.0051.

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