Posts tagged ‘Technical analysis’

February 8, 2012

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.0843 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for further rise. As noted before, prior break of 1.0752 serves as the first signal that consolidation pattern from 1.1079 is finished at 0.9663 and the larger up trend might be resuming. Current rally should target a test on 1.1079 high next. ON the downside, below 1.0701 minor support will turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.

February 7, 2012


This pair is like the ultimate risk barometer right now: the Aussie has an extremely high beta to overall market risk while the yen is a traditional safe haven. Thus, in periods of risk aversion this pair tends to fall and it tends to rise when risk is “on”. As signs that stabilisation in the Eurozone develop now that the ECB has stepped in to pump the European financial system with liquidity, combined with signs that global growth may have reached its nadir at the end of 2011, then the ground is fertile for this FX cross.

AUDJPY has lagged behind gains in other Aussie crosses in recent months reflecting concerns in the market and the continued unease with the European sovereign crisis fuelling demand for yen. However,after breaking the daily trendline, we are approaching a key resistance level at 82.80, which has capped gains since September 2011. Above here we could see a move back towards the 85.00 highs.


February 7, 2012


In this choppy market one of the few crosses that shows acceptable technical formation is Euro/Cad.after forming head and shoulder pattern in hourly chart ,the price moving back to the neck line .we expect further downside move after touching the neckline,the target is 1.2880