Posts tagged ‘retracement’

February 19, 2012

Euro/US dollar Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to as long 1.2974, EUR/USD rebounded strongly and the breach of 1.3190 minor resistance dampened the immediate bearish view. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading first. On the upside, above 1.3321 will resume the rebound from 1.2625 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627. On the downside, below 1.2974 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It’s hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. Though, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3588) will pave the way for a test on 1.4939 resistance level.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we’d expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

February 14, 2012

USD/CHF might be attempting to base

Commerzbank analysts believe the USD/CHF is losing downside momentum and attempting to base. For today and the whole week, a sideways trading is expected.

Whether 0.9080/66 support (50% retracement of Oct-upside) holds or not, Karen Jones points out some technicals: “Recovery over .9250/63 will see the 0.9316 55 day ma re- challenged, this is the barrier to the .9595 recent high. Failure at 0.9080/66 will trigger a slide to 0.8960, the 61.8% retracement and introduce potential to 0.8785, the 0.786 retracement (of the move up from the October low)”.

“We also find here the 200 day ma at 0.8757, a slide to and recovery from here is our favored scenario”, Jones adds.