Posts tagged ‘psychological level’

February 19, 2012

Australian dollar/US dollar Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD engaged in consolidative trading below 1.0844 last week. Note that AUD/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel, and thus, there is no sign of topping yet. Above 1.0855 will resume recent rally and target a test on 1.1079 high. However, note again that firstly, upside momentum is weak with daily MACD staying below signal line. Secondly, rise from 0.9663 could indeed be a leg of the consolidation from 1.1079. A break below 1.0628 minor support will indicate near term reversal and should flip bias to the downside for 1.0377 resistance turned support and below to extend such consolidation from 1.1079.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We’ll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

February 14, 2012

EUR/USD rallies on data and auction


Spain sold a total of €5.44 bn of Letras at 1.899% (vs previous 2.049%) of 12-month and 2.308% (vs previous 2.399%). Almost full take up and improved yields give confidence to investors after yesterday’s Moody’s downgrade to Spain from A1 to A3.

The rally is also due to EMU data, which ZEW survey revealed better figures than expected, turning almost positive. In Germany, the economic sentiment did turn to positive, -15.0 to 5.4. However, Industrial Production (YoY9 in the EMU has seen a decrease to -2.0% in December, from 0.1% in November, and an expected decline by -1.0%.

The improved sentiment is taking over the EUR/USD, and after retracing daily losses at 1.3172, the cross continued its upside and has reached 1.3200. At the moment of writing, the pair is facing resistance at the psychological level.

“To revert the current bearish sentiment, it looks like it would take a move back above 1.3240 for the euro to turn to the upside. Note, on the way lower, Euro may run into some buyers at 20-day MA”, wrote Ivan Delgado Egea, independent analyst at