Posts tagged ‘momentum’

February 19, 2012

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY jumped to as high as 126.06 last week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 124.33. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen towards 127.30 resistance, which is close to 161.8% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from 119.58 at 127.26. At noted before, we’re treating rebound from 117.29 as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 116.83. Hence, we’d expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42 to finish the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. Below 124.49 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 122.04 should then bring retest of 116.83 low next.

In the bigger picture, the choppy decline from 163.05 is viewed as part of the down trend from 251.09 and there is no clear sign of reversal yet. Such down trend is expected to continue after consolidation pattern from 116.83 finishes and target 110 psychological next. However, sustained break of above mentioned 128.42 will raise the odds that GBP/JPY has bottomed in medium term and will turn focus back to 140.20 resistance for confirmation.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Fall from 163.05 could be a wave five based on it’s choppy structure and lack of decisive momentum. After all, there is no sign of bottoming yet and GBP/JPY is still in favor to target 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level, before the cross bottoms.

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February 14, 2012

USD/CHF might be attempting to base

Commerzbank analysts believe the USD/CHF is losing downside momentum and attempting to base. For today and the whole week, a sideways trading is expected.

Whether 0.9080/66 support (50% retracement of Oct-upside) holds or not, Karen Jones points out some technicals: “Recovery over .9250/63 will see the 0.9316 55 day ma re- challenged, this is the barrier to the .9595 recent high. Failure at 0.9080/66 will trigger a slide to 0.8960, the 61.8% retracement and introduce potential to 0.8785, the 0.786 retracement (of the move up from the October low)”.

“We also find here the 200 day ma at 0.8757, a slide to and recovery from here is our favored scenario”, Jones adds.