Posts tagged ‘downside’

February 19, 2012

Australian dollar/US dollar Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD engaged in consolidative trading below 1.0844 last week. Note that AUD/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel, and thus, there is no sign of topping yet. Above 1.0855 will resume recent rally and target a test on 1.1079 high. However, note again that firstly, upside momentum is weak with daily MACD staying below signal line. Secondly, rise from 0.9663 could indeed be a leg of the consolidation from 1.1079. A break below 1.0628 minor support will indicate near term reversal and should flip bias to the downside for 1.0377 resistance turned support and below to extend such consolidation from 1.1079.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We’ll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

February 19, 2012

Euro/US dollar Weekly Outlook

Despite dipping to as long 1.2974, EUR/USD rebounded strongly and the breach of 1.3190 minor resistance dampened the immediate bearish view. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideway trading first. On the upside, above 1.3321 will resume the rebound from 1.2625 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627. On the downside, below 1.2974 will revive the case that rebound from 1.2625 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support level.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6039 are unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term and is in progress. Fall from 1.4939 is a falling leg inside the pattern. It’s hard to anticipate the length of a leg of any complex corrective pattern. Also, price actions would likely remain choppy and indecisive with misleading momentum indicator readings. But after all, overall picture still favors deeper fall to 1.1875 support before the consolidation pattern completes. Though, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3588) will pave the way for a test on 1.4939 resistance level.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we’d expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039.

February 17, 2012

AUD/USD falling after US CPI

After being capped just beneath 1.0800 during early Asian session the AUD/USD declined, with an European bounce in the middle.

Stronger than expected US CPI data didn’t have the same effect of yesterday’s risk-on rally on blooming economic data. “The culprit is EUR/AUD which has been absolutely loaded with speculative shorts since the break of 1.29. They are getting squeezed at the moment”, says Adam Button, analyst at Forexlive.com.

According to Mataf.net analysts, resistances are at 1.0800, 1.0845 and 1.0895. On the downside, supports might act at 1.0745, 1.0655 and 1.0625. At the moment of writing, the AUD/USD keeps losing value, now at 1.0725.

February 16, 2012

Kiwi back to the trendline

Nzdusd back above the whole today decline and touches  considerable ascending trendline at 0.8340.in the medium term ,maybe this will be the begining of major decline to lower supports (for example;0.8052 ,382% of previous up trend ).

February 16, 2012

USD/JPY vulnerable above 78.80

By Charmer Charts

The USD/JPY kept adding gains to 78.80, but Charmer Charts analysts advise taking profit there for now: “We are overextended on the short and med term charts therefore any move beyond 78.80 is looking a bit on the vulnerable side”, says Carol Harmer.

On the downside, she says: “We would look for weakness to hold the 78.30/15 support and we would re-enter longs, keeping stops below 77.90”, while after the correction, a move higher will bring the USD/JPY to 79.60, Nov-2011 highs.

February 16, 2012

EUR/USD Continues to slide in favor of short trades

“Shorts are in play and price continues to slide intraday. Lows at 1.2992 are under pressure but hourly studies are oversold. Daily charts retain a bearish bias and favor further weakness. The lower Bollinger at 1.2935 is the next port of call eyed on the downside. Stops are above 1.3100. (AS)”

February 14, 2012

USD/CHF might be attempting to base

Commerzbank analysts believe the USD/CHF is losing downside momentum and attempting to base. For today and the whole week, a sideways trading is expected.

Whether 0.9080/66 support (50% retracement of Oct-upside) holds or not, Karen Jones points out some technicals: “Recovery over .9250/63 will see the 0.9316 55 day ma re- challenged, this is the barrier to the .9595 recent high. Failure at 0.9080/66 will trigger a slide to 0.8960, the 61.8% retracement and introduce potential to 0.8785, the 0.786 retracement (of the move up from the October low)”.

“We also find here the 200 day ma at 0.8757, a slide to and recovery from here is our favored scenario”, Jones adds.

February 2, 2012

EUR/USD plunges on Juncker statements

he risk off sentiment was growing ahead of US data after the weak and below consensus PPI release in Europe.

EU’s Jean Claude Juncker said that the Greek PSI talks are being “ultradifficult” and acknowledges Greece’s efforts of the last two years. About Monday’s EU-summit, he showed disappointment on its reach.

The statements damaged the EUR/USD stability around 1.3130/50 and sent it to a plunge below 1.3100. At the moment of writing, the pair is quoting at 1.3090 and is still pushing further to the downside.