Posts tagged ‘australian dollar’

February 19, 2012

Australian dollar/US dollar Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD engaged in consolidative trading below 1.0844 last week. Note that AUD/USD is still staying inside near term rising channel, and thus, there is no sign of topping yet. Above 1.0855 will resume recent rally and target a test on 1.1079 high. However, note again that firstly, upside momentum is weak with daily MACD staying below signal line. Secondly, rise from 0.9663 could indeed be a leg of the consolidation from 1.1079. A break below 1.0628 minor support will indicate near term reversal and should flip bias to the downside for 1.0377 resistance turned support and below to extend such consolidation from 1.1079.

In the bigger picture, the up trend from 0.6008 (2008 low) is still intact. Price actions from 1.1079 are treated as consolidation in the up trend only. In any case, with 0.9387 support intact, an eventual upside break out is anticipated, for a new high above 1.1079. However, break of 0.9387 would possibly bring deeper pull back towards 0.8066 key support before the long term up trend finally resumes.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We’ll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.

Advertisements
February 3, 2012

Deutsche on Aussie

The Australian dollar is expected to benefit from stock rallies, as the euro is capped by the ECB’s dovish stance and relatively lower yields, according to Deutsche Bank. “Looking at the relationship between stocks and FX since 2008, it’s clear that the Aussie is the best ‘risk-on’ trade, rather than the euro,” Deutsche Bank says. It notes that the ECB’s balance sheet is set to overtake that of the BOJ after December’s LTRO. So while the currency may gain an extra 1%, the bank says it remains comfortable with its 1H 2012 target of 1.20-1.25. EUR/USD trades at 1.3167. AUD/USD is at 1.0696.